S&P 500 fund returns in JPY: monthly history and drawdowns

How did a Japanese S&P 500 fund actually perform in yen? This analysis separates annual and monthly returns from daily drawdowns, using the actual distribution-reinvested NAVnet asset valueThe fund's net assets divided by its units. This Japanese fund quotes NAV in JPY per 10,000 units; the quoted unit convention matters. of eMAXIS Slim U.S. Equity (S&P 500). No indexindexA measure built using published selection and weighting rules. An investable fund tracking it also has costs and tracking differences. backtest is joined to the fund’s history.

Data through 2026-08-31; source analysis updated 2026-09-01; translation reviewed 2026-09-11. All investment values are JPY, not USD. Tables use a decimal point and comma thousands separator. This is a localized historical analysis, not a new market update.

The results, with their limits

• From 2018-07-03 to 2026-08-31, compound annual growth was +20.3%. That was not a gain earned every year.
• June had the highest monthly average (+3.4%) and September the lowest (-0.3%), with at most nine observations per calendar month.
• June was positive in 87.5% of observed years. This is a historical frequency, not a future probability.
• The largest daily drawdownmaximum drawdownA fall from a preceding peak. Maximum drawdown is the largest peak-to-subsequent-trough fall in the measured period, not a calendar-year return. was -34.4%; the preceding peak was regained on 2020-09-03.
• Unlike this U.S. large-cap focus, Orukan also covers Japan, Europe and emerging markets. Many major U.S. companies appear in both.

More than simply “America’s 500 biggest companies”

The S&P 500 is not a mechanical list of the 500 largest listed firms. S&P Dow Jones Indices’ methodology considers U.S. eligibility, float-adjusted market capitalization, liquidity, public float and earnings requirements, with an index committee deciding membership. The fund therefore tracks a selected large-cap group, not the entire U.S. equity market.

Market-cap weighting gives larger companies more influence. A count of 500 does not mean equal weights, and earnings criteria do not make the portfolio resistant to market-wide losses. Our fund-level drawdown does not attribute movements to individual constituents or committee decisions.

A total-market fund also covers mid- and small-cap stocks. Similar returns over a shared interval do not prove these segments unnecessary: large companies can dominate both portfolios. Measuring the smaller-company contribution requires separate size-based attribution. This page shows the total experience of an unhedged JPY fund; it does not isolate currency, membership changes or earnings criteria as causal drivers.

Precisely what was measured

The fund seeks to track the S&P 500 including dividends in yen, but its realized return differs because of fees, tracking differences and currency-conversion timing. Fund management fees are already reflected; investor taxes are not. The manager’s official daily CSV is the calculation source. The methodology linked below defines missing-data handling and comparisons. Only computed month-end values and statistics are displayed, not a redistribution of the entire raw series.

• Monthly return = latest available value in the month ÷ latest available value in the previous month − 1.
• Calendar-year return = final available value in the year ÷ final available value in the previous year − 1.
• Drawdown at time t = value(t) ÷ running peak(t) − 1.

The unfinished 2026 year is YTD. Future months are not filled with zeroes. Starting NAV: JPY 10,038; latest: JPY 45,408. Since-launch CAGRcompounded annual rateThe constant annual growth rate equivalent to a change over a specified period. A reference CAGR may include reconstructed data and is not a forecast.: +20.3%; annualized volatilityvolatilityA measure of the variation in returns, including upward and downward movements. Its frequency, estimation method and sample period matter.: +17.3%.

Annual and monthly paths

The first partial month is blank because the preceding month-end observation is unavailable. August 2026 is a completed monthly observation, ending on 2026-08-31; the 2026 annual result remains YTD. Among completed years, returns ranged from -6.1% in 2022 to +44.5% in 2021. Entry year materially changes the short-term experience.

Seasonality is a small sample, not a trading rule

The highest mean was June’s +3.4%, and the lowest was September’s -0.3%. A gap between mean and median can reflect a small number of unusually large movements. With single-digit samples, these results cannot establish which month will be best to buy in.

The within-year table averages the valid monthly returns in each year. That is different from pooling every January, every February and so on. Multiplying a monthly arithmetic average by 12 does not produce a compounded calendar-year return.

Changes from the year’s opening observation

Here P0 is the first available value in each year. A decline from P0 is not a maximum drawdown: the latter finds the fall from any running high to a subsequent low. The first partial year and incomplete 2026 are labeled accordingly.

Large-cap diversification did not prevent a severe fall

The largest daily drawdown was -34.4%, from JPY 12,861 on 2020-02-21 to JPY 8,432 on 2020-03-24. The preceding high was regained on 2020-09-03. The worst month-end returns were March 2020 (-12.2%), December 2018 (-11.0%) and February 2020 (-8.9%). Month-end figures do not capture the lowest intramonth value.

During 2022, when interest rates and large-cap valuations drew attention, this JPY fund returned -6.1% for the calendar year. It is not the same series as a USD index. Currency effects are embedded; the figure does not isolate an interest-rate contribution. Earnings-based eligibility also did not eliminate the difference between +44.5% in 2021 and -6.1% in 2022.

The historical maximum loss is not a ceiling on future losses. Keep essential living money separate and allow for declines larger than those observed. CAGR describes the growth rate connecting endpoints, not the intervening path. Volatility here is the sample standard deviation of monthly returns multiplied by √12, not the population-standard-deviation measure used in some other analyses.

Two endpoint-dependent historical examples

Assuming a purchase on 2018-07-03 and holding the same reinvested-NAV series to 2026-08-31, JPY 1,000,000 would become JPY 4,523,610: principal JPY 1,000,000, gain JPY 3,523,610, return +352.4%. JPY 3,600,000 would become JPY 16,284,997: principal JPY 3,600,000, gain JPY 12,684,997, also +352.4%.

This assumes purchase at the selected start-date value. It ignores investor taxes, rounding, purchase and redemption costs. It is not a forecast or the operator’s personal result.

A lump sum versus twelve contributions

Investing JPY 1,200,000 on 2018-07-31 gives a final JPY 5,274,889. Investing the same principal in twelve JPY 100,000 month-end contributions from 2018-07-31 through 2019-06-28 gives JPY 5,273,237. Both use the same final observation. One historical price path cannot determine which method will work better in future; cash needs and loss tolerance also matter.

Compare like with like

The next table alone aligns actual funds, JPY, distribution-reinvested NAV and the same dates. Its end date, 2026-08-26, differs from the main analysis cutoff. Orukan’s pre-launch reference reconstruction is not used in this comparison.

The common interval is short, and changing endpoints changes CAGR and drawdown. This is a comparison of exposure and price behavior, not a ranking of future winners.

Terms specific to this analysis

Float-adjusted market-cap weighting

Weights reflect company size while considering shares available for public trading.

Index committee

The S&P Dow Jones Indices committee applies the membership methodology.

Rebalancing

Adjusting share counts or weights according to index rules.

Total return

Return including reinvested dividends, not only price appreciation.

Tracking error

Variation in a fund’s return differences from its benchmark.

Unhedged currency exposure

No general offsetting of foreign-currency movements; a JPY quote can still carry FX risk.

Questions to ask before using the figures

Is this the S&P 500 index’s own history?

No. It is an actual Japanese fund’s distribution-reinvested NAV, with fees and tracking differences.

Can CAGR be treated as an expected future return?

No. It depends on historical start and end dates, and was not earned uniformly each year.

Do the best month and worst drawdown tell me when to buy and how much I can lose?

No. Small-sample seasonality is not a trading rule, and the observed drawdown is not a future loss limit.

Does a yen-denominated fund remove FX risk?

No. U.S. equity exposure without a currency hedge still incorporates USD/JPY movements.

Primary sources and reproducibility

• S&P U.S. Indices Methodology
• S&P 500 index overview
• MUFG: official since-launch NAV CSV
• MUFG: fund product page
• MUFG: prospectus, 2026-07-25
• MUFG: monthly report, July 2026

The source analysis records retrieval at 2026-09-01T13:18:09+09:00, source CSV SHA-256, row counts and independently checked calculations. This translation preserves those historical conditions rather than recomputing from today’s changing CSV. No investment advice, solicitation, forecast or guaranteed result is offered. Copyright and data-provider conditions still apply.

Source updates: 2026-09-01—August-end official observations and statistics; 2026-08-27—definitions, recovery date, drawdowns, common-period comparison, investment examples, terms and FAQ. See the localized methodology in the navigation. Related original Japanese pages are clearly labeled below.

• S&P 500 structure guide (Japanese)
• Original Orukan analysis (Japanese)
• Index-investing hub (Japanese)