Asset Log · Sources and verifiable data
Orukan performance in JPY: actual fund and pre-launch reference data
Actual fund first: NAV JPY 37,791 at 2026-09-30; change from the first 2026 observation, JPY 33,507 on 2026-01-05, is +12.79%. This is an incomplete-year result, not a future return assumption. Pre-launch figures have not been independently reproduced; data and publication-rights conditions remain unresolved.
Orukan brings shares in companies around the world into one Japanese investment fund. The main analysis below uses the actual fund from 2018-10-31. Historical reference material is kept in a separate, explicitly unverified archive and is not used for the conclusions or learning-tool inputs.
Data cutoff: 2026-09-30. Japanese data analysis updated: 2026-10-01. Translation synchronized: 2026-10-14. This is a localized edition of the existing analysis, not a new market-data update. All fund values and examples are in Japanese yen (JPY), not US dollars. Tables use a decimal point and commas to group thousands.
Momo
I keep hearing about Orukan. What kind of fund is it?
Ao
It offers diversified exposure to shares around the world. Start by distinguishing the index from the actual investment product.
What is Orukan?
Orukan is the nickname of eMAXIS Slim All Country Equity (All Country), a Japanese investment fund launched on 2018-10-31. It invests in developed- and emerging-market equities, including Japan, and aims to track the MSCI All Country World IndexindexA measure built using published selection and weighting rules. An investable fund tracking it also has costs and tracking differences. with dividends, expressed in yen. It generally does not hedge currency exposure: both overseas share prices and exchange ratesexchange ratesThe prices at which currencies are exchanged. Unhedged foreign holdings can gain or lose value in JPY even if their local share prices are unchanged. affect its net asset value (NAV).
Think of one basket containing shares in many companies and countries. DiversificationdiversificationSpreading exposure across investments to reduce dependence on one holding or market. It cannot eliminate market-wide losses. reduces dependence on one holding, but it does not prevent a broad market loss. At launch the NAV was JPY 10,000 per 10,000 units. The official record through the data cutoff shows a high of JPY 39,019 on 2026-08-14 and a low of JPY 8,102 on 2020-03-24.
| Full fund name | eMAXIS Slim All Country Equity (All Country) |
|---|---|
| Launch date | 2018-10-31 |
| NAV at launch | JPY 10,000 per 10,000 units |
| NAV at the data cutoff | JPY 37,791 (2026-09-30; official MUFG Asset Management data) |
| Net assets | JPY 13,879,452,000,000 (about JPY 13.88 trillion; 2026-09-30) |
| Benchmark | MSCI ACWI, including dividends, expressed in JPY |
| Ongoing management feemanagement feeAn ongoing charge borne by the fund. Published NAV generally already reflects fund-level expenses; do not deduct the same fee twice. | 0.05775% a year, including tax; checked 2026-08-25 |
| Total effective costs | Not established here: check the latest management report. Secondary estimates with different assumptions are not substituted. |
| Subscription fee | None at fund level; check distributor and adviser contract terms |
| Fund redemption deduction | None |
| Cash distributions | JPY 0 since launch, as of the end of April 2026 |
| NISANISAJapan's tax-advantaged investment system, subject to eligibility and allowance rules. It does not determine tax treatment outside Japan. | Eligible for Japan’s NISA regular-investment and growth-investment allowances |
NISA is a Japanese tax-advantaged investment system. Eligibility shown here describes the Japanese fund and system; it does not establish availability or tax treatment in another country.
Where does the MSCI ACWI invest?
Momo
Does an all-country fund put the same amount in every country?
Ao
No. The weights differ and change with factors such as market size.
At 2026-07-31, the index contained 2,460 large- and mid-cap stocks across 23 developed and 24 emerging markets: 47 countries in total. It covered approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set. These are index figures, not the fund’s own holdings. Country weights are not equal, and they change with markets and index reviews.
| Country or region | Index weight | Largest holdings | Index weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 63.55% | NVIDIA | 4.57% |
| Japan | 5.05% | Apple | 4.47% |
| United Kingdom | 3.19% | Microsoft | 3.23% |
| Taiwan | 3.14% | Amazon | 2.59% |
| Canada | 3.01% | Alphabet A | 2.04% |
| Other | 22.07% | Top 10 combined | 24.21% |
How far did NAV move within each year?
A year-end return does not tell you how difficult the path was. The next table sets each year’s first official daily NAV, P0, to zero and measures the highest and lowest change from that point. It does not use intraday share prices. The 2018 row starts on the fund’s launch date; 2026 runs only to the data cutoff.
| Year | Starting NAV P0 | Largest gain from P0 | Largest decline from P0 | Year-end / cutoff | Series type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018* | JPY 10,000 | +4.94% | -11.22% | -7.46% | Actual fund, from launch 2018-10-31–2018-12-28 |
| 2019 | JPY 8,926 | +31.48% | +0.00% | +31.48% | Actual fund 2019-01-04–2019-12-30 |
| 2020 | JPY 11,569 | +10.72% | -29.97% | +10.54% | Actual fund 2020-01-06–2020-12-30 |
| 2021 | JPY 12,803 | +32.55% | -0.51% | +32.55% | Actual fund 2021-01-04–2021-12-30 |
| 2022 | JPY 17,073 | +4.27% | -13.01% | -6.14% | Actual fund 2022-01-04–2022-12-30 |
| 2023 | JPY 15,757 | +33.51% | +0.00% | +32.63% | Actual fund 2023-01-04–2023-12-29 |
| 2024 | JPY 20,756 | +34.30% | +0.00% | +33.39% | Actual fund 2024-01-04–2024-12-30 |
| 2025 | JPY 27,473 | +21.68% | -18.81% | +21.45% | Actual fund 2025-01-06–2025-12-30 |
| 2026* | JPY 33,507 | +16.45% | -3.97% | +12.79% | Actual fund, year to date 2026-01-05–2026-09-30 |
A decline from P0 is not a maximum drawdownmaximum drawdownA fall from a preceding peak. Maximum drawdown is the largest peak-to-subsequent-trough fall in the measured period, not a calendar-year return.. In 2020, the largest fall from the first observation was −29.97%. The fall from the later peak of JPY 12,241 on February 21 to JPY 8,102 on March 24 was −33.81%. A drawdown measures a fall from a preceding peak, not necessarily the start of the year.
No P0 analysis is supplied for 2000–2017. Inferring a starting value from annual averages, highs and lows would introduce unsupported data.
The 2026 monthly record
The fund fell to −3.97% relative to its first 2026 observation in March, then reached +16.45% on August 14. September closes at the final official observation, 2026-09-30, with NAV JPY 37,791, a −2.86% monthly change and +12.79% from P0. No later months are implied.
| Month | Net asset value (NAV) | Month-on-month | Change from P0 | High since P0 | Low since P0 | Observation status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01 | JPY 33,732 2026-01-30 |
— | +0.67% | JPY 34,555 2026-01-14 / +3.13% |
JPY 33,507 2026-01-05 / +0.00% |
Final official observation of month |
| 2026-02 | JPY 34,542 2026-02-27 |
+2.40% | +3.09% | JPY 34,704 2026-02-26 / +3.57% |
JPY 33,366 2026-02-13 / -0.42% |
Final official observation of month |
| 2026-03 | JPY 32,176 2026-03-31 |
-6.85% | -3.97% | JPY 34,704 2026-02-26 / +3.57% |
JPY 32,176 2026-03-31 / -3.97% |
Final official observation of month |
| 2026-04 | JPY 35,897 2026-04-30 |
+11.56% | +7.13% | JPY 35,986 2026-04-28 / +7.40% |
JPY 32,176 2026-03-31 / -3.97% |
Final official observation of month |
| 2026-05 | JPY 37,737 2026-05-29 |
+5.13% | +12.62% | JPY 37,737 2026-05-29 / +12.62% |
JPY 32,176 2026-03-31 / -3.97% |
Final official observation of month |
| 2026-06 | JPY 38,017 2026-06-30 |
+0.74% | +13.46% | JPY 38,306 2026-06-22 / +14.32% |
JPY 32,176 2026-03-31 / -3.97% |
Final official observation of month |
| 2026-07 | JPY 37,521 2026-07-31 |
-1.30% | +11.98% | JPY 38,532 2026-07-07 / +15.00% |
JPY 32,176 2026-03-31 / -3.97% |
Final official observation of month |
| 2026-08 | JPY 38,905 2026-08-31 |
+3.69% | +16.11% | JPY 39,019 2026-08-14 / +16.45% |
JPY 32,176 2026-03-31 / -3.97% |
Final official observation of month |
| 2026-09 | JPY 37,791 2026-09-30 |
-2.86% | +12.79% | JPY 39,019 2026-08-14 / +16.45% |
JPY 32,176 2026-03-31 / -3.97% |
Final official observation of month |
Changes from P0 use JPY 33,507 on 2026-01-05. Monthly changes compare the final observation of consecutive months. January’s month-on-month change is omitted because December 2025 is outside this particular table.
Actual-fund monthly patterns, with small samples
These statistics use completed months of the actual fund only. Missing months are not filled with zero; partial months are excluded. Mean and median are separate, and the observed positive frequency is not a future probability. The longer, unverified reference aggregate is not mixed into this table.
| Month | Mean | Median | Positive observations | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +1.64% | +1.89% | 75.0% | 8 |
| February | +0.73% | +2.50% | 62.5% | 8 |
| March | -0.70% | +0.05% | 50.0% | 8 |
| April | +3.05% | +3.08% | 75.0% | 8 |
| May | +2.21% | +3.12% | 75.0% | 8 |
| June | +3.20% | +3.11% | 87.5% | 8 |
| July | +1.15% | +1.96% | 75.0% | 8 |
| August | +1.13% | +1.10% | 75.0% | 8 |
| September | -0.84% | -1.98% | 37.5% | 8 |
| October | +3.79% | +6.24% | 71.4% | 7 |
| November | +2.87% | +1.97% | 62.5% | 8 |
| December | +0.22% | +2.44% | 75.0% | 8 |
The small samples do not establish a trading rule. A month containing an annual low is not the same measure as a monthly return. Currency movements and economic conditions can overwhelm apparent calendar patterns.
What past crashes show
Momo
Even with long-term gains, were there large falls along the way?
Ao
Yes. Look at maximum drawdown and the time spent below a previous high, as well as returns.
A long-term rise can include steep and prolonged falls. Recovery in a past episode does not guarantee the same recovery period next time. Losses and required recoveries are asymmetric: JPY 1,000,000 falling 50% becomes JPY 500,000, which then needs a 100% gain to recover. Losses of 10% and 30% leave JPY 900,000 and JPY 700,000 respectively.
Pandemic shock, 2020
The actual fund reached its all-time low of JPY 8,102 on 2020-03-24, then recovered by year-end. The calendar-year return versus the final observation of 2019 was +9.0%; the separate P0 measure versus the first 2020 observation was +10.54%. A positive full-year result can conceal a severe loss along the way.
Inflation and rate increases, 2022
The actual fund returned −5.6% versus the final observation of 2021; its change from the first 2022 observation, P0, was −6.14%. Overseas equity weakness was partly cushioned in yen terms by a weaker yen. The manager explains that both underlying asset prices and exchange rates affect NAV.
What would a lump sum have become?
These are hypothetical examples, not the operator’s assets or investment results. The calculation is starting amount × ending NAV ÷ purchase NAV. A fully specified simulation would also require execution dates, dealing NAVs, taxes, fee treatment and unit rounding. The table makes no separate adjustment for those items; ongoing fund expenses already reflected in published NAV are not added back.
| Assumption | Starting amount | Purchase NAV | Value at 2026-09-30 | Increase | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lump sumlump sumInvesting an amount at one time instead of spreading purchases across dates. The amount is exposed to subsequent market movements immediately. at launch | JPY 1,000,000 | JPY 10,000 | Approx. JPY 3,779,000 | JPY 2,779,000 | No separate adjustment for taxes, costs or unit rounding |
| Lump sum at launch | JPY 3,600,000 | JPY 10,000 | Approx. JPY 13,605,000 | JPY 10,005,000 | No separate adjustment for taxes, costs or unit rounding |
| Lump sum at the 2020 all-time low | JPY 1,000,000 | JPY 8,102 | Approx. JPY 4,664,000 | JPY 3,664,000 | The low could not be identified in advance |
| 2000 / 2010 | JPY 1,000,000 | — | Not calculated | — | First-of-year values and the underlying index series are unavailable |
The lowest purchase date is identifiable only in hindsight. This is not a proposal to time the bottom. Values for a 2000 or 2010 start were not calculated because the underlying reference sequence and starting values remain unavailable. This section does not calculate monthly contribution examples of JPY 10,000 or JPY 30,000. Any separate tool must state its own purchase dates, valuation date and treatment of uninvested cash; it is not a result from this lump-sum table.
Does an all-time high mean the fund is expensive?
A record NAV is not, by itself, a valuation measure. Company earnings, share prices, reinvested dividends and exchange rates all contribute to NAV. Valuation requires other evidence, such as price-to-earnings ratios, profits and interest rates.
Nor does a new high mean safety: the fund’s JPY 39,019 high on 2026-08-14 was followed by JPY 37,791 on September 30. Waiting for a fall can also miss gains before that fall occurs. Separate money needed within a few years, consider whether a severe loss would disrupt everyday finances, and choose a sustainable amount and horizon before deciding on entry timing. Recent strong years alone are not a sound return assumption.
Lump sum or regular contributions?
A lump sum puts all the chosen capital into the market immediately. It benefits earlier if prices keep rising, but suffers the full impact of an immediate fall. Regular contributionsregular contributionsInvesting at scheduled intervals. This spreads purchase dates but neither prevents losses nor guarantees a better result than a lump sum. spread purchase dates and may reduce the emotional burden of buying near a high; in a continuously rising market, some money enters later.
Neither approach is always best. Consider emergency savings, the investment horizon and whether the plan can continue through losses. Combining the approaches is also possible. This section does not calculate a monthly-contribution backtest. Separate learning tools use their own stated periods, purchase counts, valuation dates and uninvested-cash assumptions; they are not the same calculation as the lump-sum table above.
Orukan, S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100
| Feature | Orukan | S&P500 | NASDAQ100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Investment universe | Large and mid caps in developed and emerging markets | US large caps | Large non-financial companies listed on Nasdaq |
| Approximate constituents | 2,460 (MSCI ACWI) | 500 companies | 100 companies |
| Geography | 47 countries; 63.55% in the United States | United States | Primarily the US market |
| Main characteristic | Broad geographic diversification | Focused on US large caps | Greater concentration in non-financial and growth companies |
Orukan emphasizes geographic spread, the S&P 500 focuses on large US companies, and the Nasdaq-100 concentrates on large non-financial companies listed on Nasdaq. Past relative performance does not establish a future winner. With US equities already exceeding 60% of the ACWI at the stated cutoff, adding an S&P 500 fund increases US exposure; owning more products does not necessarily add diversification.
Who might consider it?
It may suit someone seeking one global-equity holding, considering a horizon of 10 years or more, comfortable delegating constituent changes to an index, and able to continue through substantial losses. It may not suit someone who cannot accept loss of principal, needs the money within a few years, deliberately wants a concentrated regional or sector exposure, or seeks short-term trading profits. A global-equity fund does not replace cash, bonds or money earmarked for near-term needs.
Financial terms used here
- net asset value
- The fund's net assets divided by its units. This Japanese fund quotes NAV in JPY per 10,000 units; the quoted unit convention matters.
- diversification
- Spreading exposure across investments to reduce dependence on one holding or market. It cannot eliminate market-wide losses.
- index
- A measure built using published selection and weighting rules. An investable fund tracking it also has costs and tracking differences.
- management fee
- An ongoing charge borne by the fund. Published NAV generally already reflects fund-level expenses; do not deduct the same fee twice.
- exchange rates
- The prices at which currencies are exchanged. Unhedged foreign holdings can gain or lose value in JPY even if their local share prices are unchanged.
- compounded annual rate
- The constant annual growth rate equivalent to a change over a specified period. A reference CAGR may include reconstructed data and is not a forecast.
- maximum drawdown
- The largest fall from a preceding peak to a subsequent trough within the measured series. It is different from a calendar-year return.
- NISA
- Japan's tax-advantaged investment system, subject to eligibility and allowance rules. It does not determine tax treatment outside Japan.
- regular contributions
- Investing at scheduled intervals. This spreads purchase dates but neither prevents losses nor guarantees a better result than a lump sum.
- lump sum
- Investing an amount at one time instead of spreading purchases across dates. The amount is exposed to subsequent market movements immediately.
Questions to keep in perspective
Momo
If it rose in the past, will it grow at the same rate in future?
Ao
Not necessarily. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is verified here? The actual fund begins on 2018-10-31; 2026 ends at 2026-09-30. Is +12.79% an annual forecast? No. It is the observed change from P0 during the incomplete year. Does diversification prevent losses? No. Among available official observations, the actual-fund 2020 peak-to-trough decline was −33.81%, not a limit on future losses or certification of every expected daily observation.
Is one Orukan holding enough? It can cover a global-equity allocation, but not every financial need. Can it be bought through NISA? It is listed for both Japanese allowances at the source-check date; check availability with the relevant Japanese financial institution. Should you buy in September or at a record high? Neither a calendar pattern nor NAV alone establishes a suitable investment decision.
Reading the record responsibly
Momo
So I need to look at the investments and risks, not just the return.
Ao
Exactly. Compare costs and the size of past falls using consistent assumptions.
The actual fund begins on 2018-10-31. Read its monthly endpoints, the change from each year’s first observation and peak-to-trough losses as different measures. The 2026 endpoint is 2026-09-30. Unverified pre-launch figures are isolated below and are not used to rank products, form the main conclusions or supply learning-tool calculations. The practical starting point is an amount and horizon that remain manageable through substantial losses.
Separate archive: unverified historical reference, not the main analysis
The continuous pre-launch series and permission for its derived republication have not been independently established. This is BLOCKED_EXTERNAL, not a reconstructed actual-fund track record. The following existing reference tables, chart and statistics are retained separately for traceability. They are not used in the main conclusions, product ranking or learning-tool calculations. Repositioning them does not establish data validity or publication rights.
Why does the history start in 2000 if the fund launched in 2018?
There was no actual Orukan NAV before 2018-10-31. The 2000–2018-10-30 portion is a reference reconstruction supplied with the original analysis, based on MSCI ACWI Net Returns in JPY. It represents yen conversion, reinvestment of dividends after withholding tax, and no currency hedge. It is not a live fund track record.
The reconstruction is scaled to the fund’s launch NAV using Reference_NAV_t = 10,000 × Index_t ÷ Index_2018-10-31. Annual changes for 2012–2018 matched MSCI material to one decimal place. The continuous index series for 2000–2011 and the underlying sequence used for reference NAV averages, highs and lows have not been independently reproduced. Those figures remain explicitly unverified reference values.
2000–2018-10-30: reference reconstruction; not actual fund performance.
From 2018-10-31: the actual fund’s official NAV. In the annual table, the full year 2018 remains marked as reference because it spans the launch boundary.
Annual NAV levels and returns
NAV is the fund’s price per stated number of units. The table shows annual average, low, high and return. “※” identifies reference reconstruction; “*” identifies the incomplete 2026 year. Reference-period averages came from supplied aggregates: without the original daily or monthly sequence, the averaging method cannot be independently checked. Actual fund figures from 2019 onward were checked against MUFG Asset Management’s official daily CSV.
| Year | Annual average | Low (month/day) | High (month/day) | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000※ | Approx. JPY 4,020 | Approx. JPY 3,732 (November) | Approx. JPY 4,247 (March) | -4.3% |
| 2001※ | Approx. JPY 3,665 | Approx. JPY 3,129 (September) | Approx. JPY 4,065 (January) | -3.8% |
| 2002※ | Approx. JPY 3,208 | Approx. JPY 2,621 (September) | Approx. JPY 3,857 (March) | -26.9% |
| 2003※ | Approx. JPY 3,008 | Approx. JPY 2,612 (February) | Approx. JPY 3,353 (December) | +21.0% |
| 2004※ | Approx. JPY 3,518 | Approx. JPY 3,365 (March) | Approx. JPY 3,773 (December) | +10.2% |
| 2005※ | Approx. JPY 4,142 | Approx. JPY 3,690 (January) | Approx. JPY 4,761 (December) | +27.7% |
| 2006※ | Approx. JPY 5,185 | Approx. JPY 4,821 (May) | Approx. JPY 5,835 (December) | +22.1% |
| 2007※ | Approx. JPY 6,280 | Approx. JPY 5,842 (February) | Approx. JPY 6,676 (October) | +4.7% |
| 2008※ | Approx. JPY 4,650 | Approx. JPY 2,904 (December) | Approx. JPY 5,673 (May) | -53.1% |
| 2009※ | Approx. JPY 3,360 | Approx. JPY 2,578 (February) | Approx. JPY 3,989 (December) | +38.3% |
| 2010※ | Approx. JPY 3,798 | Approx. JPY 3,465 (August) | Approx. JPY 4,217 (April) | -1.8% |
| 2011※ | Approx. JPY 3,914 | Approx. JPY 3,263 (September) | Approx. JPY 4,383 (April) | -12.1% |
| 2012※ | Approx. JPY 4,033 | Approx. JPY 3,635 (May) | Approx. JPY 4,619 (December) | +30.5% |
| 2013※ | Approx. JPY 5,850 | Approx. JPY 5,085 (January) | Approx. JPY 6,937 (December) | +49.3% |
| 2014※ | Approx. JPY 7,283 | Approx. JPY 6,504 (January) | Approx. JPY 8,321 (December) | +18.8% |
| 2015※ | Approx. JPY 8,425 | Approx. JPY 7,724 (September) | Approx. JPY 8,997 (May) | -2.0% |
| 2016※ | Approx. JPY 7,611 | Approx. JPY 7,077 (June) | Approx. JPY 8,579 (December) | +4.6% |
| 2017※ | Approx. JPY 9,345 | Approx. JPY 8,574 (January) | Approx. JPY 10,335 (December) | +19.7% |
| 2018※ | Approx. JPY 10,121 | Approx. JPY 9,239 (December) | Approx. JPY 10,829 (September) | -11.8% |
| 2019 | Approx. JPY 10,543 | JPY 8,926 (1/4) | JPY 11,736 (12/30) | +26.8% |
| 2020 | Approx. JPY 11,145 | JPY 8,102 (3/24) | JPY 12,809 (12/29) | +9.0% |
| 2021 | Approx. JPY 15,143 | JPY 12,738 (1/5) | JPY 16,971 (12/30) | +32.7% |
| 2022 | Approx. JPY 16,541 | JPY 14,851 (3/9) | JPY 17,802 (9/13) | -5.6% |
| 2023 | Approx. JPY 18,769 | JPY 15,757 (1/4) | JPY 21,037 (12/20) | +30.4% |
| 2024 | Approx. JPY 24,824 | JPY 20,756 (1/4) | JPY 27,876 (12/27) | +32.5% |
| 2025 | Approx. JPY 28,422 | JPY 22,305 (4/9) | JPY 33,428 (12/29) | +20.5% |
| 2026* | Approx. JPY 36,165 | JPY 32,176 (3/31) | JPY 39,019 (8/14) | +13.3% |
The 2026 average uses daily observations through 2026-09-30. The calendar-year return of +13.3% compares JPY 37,791 with the last official 2025 observation, JPY 33,365 on December 30. The +12.79% figure elsewhere compares it with the first 2026 observation, JPY 33,507 on January 5. These starting points are different.
Annual returns and the compounded pace
Momo
One fund for global shares sounds straightforward.
Ao
Broad diversification is a useful feature, but the value can still fall below the amount invested.
Across the 26 completed years from 2000 to 2025, the supplied annual series had 17 positive years and 9 negative years. The best was 2013 at +49.3%; the worst was 2008 at −53.1%. These statistics include pre-launch reference values and exclude the incomplete 2026 year.
| Positive / negative years | 17 / 9 years (65.4% positive) |
|---|---|
| Arithmetic mean annual return | +10.67% |
| Median annual return | +14.50% |
| Reference compounded annual ratecompounded annual rateThe constant annual growth rate equivalent to a change over a specified period. A reference CAGR may include reconstructed data and is not a forecast. (CAGR equivalent) | +8.01%/year Includes reference reconstruction for 2000–2018 |
| Standard deviation of annual returns | 22.03% (population) |
| Best year | 2013 +49.3% |
| Worst year | 2008 -53.1% |
| Longest positive streak | 5 years (2003–2007) |
| Longest negative streak | 3 years (2000–2002) |
The arithmetic mean simply averages the annual returns. The reference compounded annual rate, +8.01%, expresses the overall growth as an equivalent steady yearly pace. It does not mean that every year gained 8.01%, that an investor actually held Orukan in 2000, or that 8.01% is an expected future return. Actual outcomes rise and fall around any such smooth illustration.
The −53.1% figure is a calendar-year loss, not a peak-to-trough drawdown. A maximum drawdown cannot be recalculated for the supplied reconstruction without the continuous series. MSCI’s separate official ACWI Net Returns (JPY) material reports a 65.13% maximum drawdown for 2007-07-13 to 2009-03-09. That is an index statistic, not this fund’s drawdown.
Unverified reference seasonality
A month containing a year’s lowest NAV is not the same measure as that month’s average return. Recounting the annual table for 2000–2025 gives January the most annual lows (8) and December the most annual highs (16). A market that trends upward also tends to have earlier lows and later highs; this is not proof of a tradable seasonal rule.
| Month | Lows | Highs |
|---|---|---|
| January | 8 | 1 |
| February | 3 | 0 |
| March | 3 | 2 |
| April | 1 | 2 |
| May | 2 | 2 |
| June | 1 | 0 |
| July | 0 | 0 |
| August | 1 | 0 |
| September | 4 | 2 |
| October | 0 | 1 |
| November | 1 | 0 |
| December | 2 | 16 |
The original monthly sequence was not available for the long reference period. Only seven supplied monthly means were documented: January −0.4%, April +2.4%, August −0.9%, September −0.8%, October +2.0%, November +2.0% and December +2.1%. These are not independently verified. Other months, medians, positive-month rates, extremes and standard deviations were not guessed.
Dot-com bust, 2000–2002
When enthusiasm for internet businesses faded, the reference series fell for three consecutive years: −4.3%, −3.8% and −26.9%. Weak markets can persist for years, not just one dramatic day. Without the underlying continuous series, precise portfolio values and recovery durations were not calculated.
Global financial crisis, 2008–2009
The reference annual returns were −53.1% and then +38.3%. JPY 1,000,000 would become JPY 469,000 after the first year; the next gain would leave approximately JPY 649,000, not the original million. This is a simple illustration using the rounded annual reference returns.
Sources, method and update record
The annual table in the separate reference archive used the supplied deep-research-report.md. Its pre-launch component is not independently reproducible for every period. Annual means, medians, the reference compounded rate, population standard deviation, positive/negative streaks and high/low-month counts were recalculated from the supplied annual observations. Monthly reference means remain explicitly unverified.
Official fund CSV data through 2026-09-30 underpin the Japanese data update dated 2026-10-01. This synchronized edition updates all 2026 monthly endpoints, year-start analysis, the actual-fund seasonal table, annual 2026 figures and investment illustrations together. Translation synchronization is dated 2026-10-14. Full official publication-calendar completeness for daily risk metrics is not yet established; those metrics describe available observations, not a certification of every expected business day. Index composition is dated 2026-07-31; completed-year statistics end in 2025. Translation preserves these cutoffs.
- MUFG Asset Management: fund information
- MUFG Asset Management: daily NAV CSV (data through 2026-09-30; source analysis updated 2026-10-01)
- MUFG Asset Management: benchmark definition
- MUFG Asset Management: prospectus
- MSCI ACWI Index: composition at 2026-07-31
- MSCI ACWI factsheet
- MSCI World JPY factsheet: ACWI Net Returns JPY comparison
- Japan FSA: NISA regular-investment eligible products
- Rakuten Securities: fund NAV, net assets and highs/lows
- S&P Dow Jones Indices: S&P 500
- Nasdaq: Nasdaq-100 factsheet
The published forecast records and result reviews (Japanese) preserve previously published scenarios and their reviews; this synchronization does not add a new forecast. They should not be confused with the historical evidence on this page.
Investment disclaimer: This article provides information, not a recommendation to buy or sell a product. Historical results and reference reconstructions do not guarantee future outcomes. Investments can lose value. Tax rules and product availability depend on the investor’s jurisdiction and circumstances.